Shortlist a Whop seller before you pre-sell. Seven heuristics, three worked examples.

Stage 01 of the four-part Routemint framework, in depth. The seven heuristics operators run before promoting a Whop seller — niche fit, commission tier, retention signals, payout track record, conversion proof, refund posture, white-room potential — plus three worked examples scoring real picks from the index.

Jump to the checklist Open the picks

Why selection matters

The math is decided in advance of every other lever.

A single bad pick sinks the month. Refund-heavy Whops and consumer-fluff niches poison the whole affiliate engine because Whop pays on renewal — and you are paid in proportion to how long the buyer stays.

Selection is the only stage where the math is set before every other lever. Skip it and pre-sell, tracking and tier-stacking layers all compound a number that was already wrong.

The playbook keeps four heuristics on the playbook page (recent revenue, low refund rate, evergreen niche, monthly-recurring price). The seven on this chapter extend them with the rows that decide whether a seller survives the 30% recurring window long enough for the 51% math to pay off.

Apply them in order: niche-fit the row to your audience, then confirm commission tier, then read retention and payout signals. Conversion proof, refund posture and white-room potential filter out the rest. The next stage — pre-sell — only ever leans on a row that has cleared this chapter’s seven-point screen.

The seven heuristics

Run every seller through the same seven-point screen.

Tick each row as you walk a Whop seller through it. A row that misses more than one column is a pass — a row that misses a second consecutive renewal signal is a watch — and a row that clears all seven is ready to graduate to the next stage.

Selection checklist

0 / 7 ticked

Niche fit
Pick a row that overlaps the audience you already own. Selection is decided before pre-sell — a row you have to educate never makes back the ad spend.
Commission tier
Confirm the Whop seller is on the 30% product share + 30% seller-referral tier, not a custom payout. The two layers are what makes the 51% math work.
Retention signals
Look at prior cohorts’ renewal math (8-14 weeks on Trading, 12+ months on SaaS). If the seller can only show month-one sell-through, the recurring share never lands.
Payout track record
Whop pays on renewal — so verify a clean payout history. A missed payout or a churn cliff on cohort two collapses the engine before month three.
Conversion proof
Pre-sell lifts when the proof feels like proof — not hype. Look for cohort screenshots, refund rate under 5%, and a hook that survives a Substack, X and Discord cut.
Refund posture
Refunds are the silent killer of a 30% recurring model. Aim for refund rate under 5% on Whop’s leaderboard and a 90-day window on the right picks; a refund cliff pauses every downstream tier.
White-room potential
A Whop link pre-sells cleanly when you strip the affiliate angle. If the only way the offer works is with a hook, the seller is selling the hook — not a real offer. Pass.

Worked examples

Scoring three picks from the Whop index, line by line.

One Affiliate Marketing pick (highest-overlap row), one Crypto pick (perma-bull recurring tier), one Trading pick (highest-LTV slice). The scorecards below show what a clean pass looks like, where a watch surface lands, and how to read the signals the index doesn’t advertise.

Scorecard · Affiliate Marketing

Discord pre-sell

Crypto Calls Lounge

Three rotating alt-coin plays a week, a private Discord and a 90-day refund window — converting buyers already pay-monthly.

PROMOTE

Open on the index

Niche fit
Crypto Discord overlaps the highest-intent slice of the row.
Commission tier
30% product + 30% seller-referral tier, confirmed.
Retention signals
Renewal math holds 4-8 weeks on the median cohort.
Payout track record
No missed payouts reported across two cohorts.
Conversion proof
Refund rate under 4%, below the 5% floor.
Refund posture
90-day refund window, paid out of the seller’s share.
White-room potential
Pre-sells clean even with the affiliate angle stripped.

Scorecard · Crypto

Discord pre-sell

On-Chain Alpha

Nightly DeFi flow alerts, $59/mo, sold to a Discord of wallets already rotating alpha capital — recurring share hits on the first renewal and keeps paying until churn.

WATCH

Open on the index

Niche fit
Crypto alpha overlaps an X-crypto crowd the operator can route.
Commission tier
Same 30% / 30% stack as the rest of the row.
Retention signals
Renewal math holds 6-10 months on the median cohort.
Payout track record
Cohort-two churn spike reported in early Q2 — re-check before routing.
Conversion proof
Public Discord cohort screenshots; refund rate < 5%.
Refund posture
Refund rate trending toward 6% — close but below the 5% floor.
White-room potential
The alpha pre-sells clean without a Hook template.

Scorecard · Trading

Discord pre-sell

Day-Trading Mentorship

$97/mo Discord with a 24-hour trade alert turnaround, designed around a monthly-recurring tier that pays 14 weeks on average — every renewal stacks on the previous.

PROMOTE

Open on the index

Niche fit
Trading Discord is the highest-LTV slice on Whop — direct audience match.
Commission tier
30% product + 30% seller tier, both confirmed.
Retention signals
14-week median renewal on cohort two and three.
Payout track record
No gaps across two renewal cycles.
Conversion proof
Trade-alert screenshots used as pre-sell proof.
Refund posture
Refund rate tight (<5%) but cohort churn pushed close to floor on month three.
White-room potential
Pre-sells clean with or without a Hook template.

Pick the next step

From the seven-point screen into the next stage.

A Whop pick that clears the seven heuristics graduates into pre-sell copy — one creative per surface (Substack, X, Discord, TikTok) so the offer reads like a recommendation. The picks index underneath hosts the rows this chapter scores against, and the pre-sell chapter deep-dives the next stage.

Open the picks index Continue to Pre-Sell

Working through a single Whop pick and want the seven-point checklist emailed to you? Request the checklist — direct inbox: routemint-6@polsia.app.